ECB's Kazimir Warns Markets May Be Underestimating How Much More Tightening Is Needed

Peter Kazimir, the head of Slovakia's central bank and a hawkish voice on the European Central Bank's 27 member Governing Council, says markets may still be underestimating how much more tightening the ECB will need to do to keep inflation from becoming entrenched. In his telling, the real open question is no longer whether the ECB raises rates further, but how much more it ends up having to do.

"Markets may still underestimate what is required," Kazimir said, adding that "the issue is not one meeting or one move." He also pushed back on reading the ECB's most recent pause as a signal the tightening cycle was over, saying last week's pause was not a finish line, and that policymakers should act before high inflation starts to feel normal.

Investors currently price in somewhere between two and three more rate hikes from the ECB over the coming year before a slow retreat, with market based inflation gauges suggesting price growth will likely stay well above the central bank's 2% target for years to come.

Kazimir argued that cost pressures can build inside businesses well before they show up in the prices customers actually pay, and that inflation expectations themselves can shift before the broader data catches up, which is part of why he thinks waiting for clear confirmation in the numbers risks acting too late.